India's eastern coastline is facing a developing weather threat as a depression over the Bay of Bengal is forecast to intensify into a severe cyclonic storm, prompting the India Meteorological Department to issue a Pre-Cyclone Watch for the Andhra Pradesh and adjoining South Odisha coasts.
In its National Bulletin No. 2, issued at 1:30 PM IST on November 15, 2026, the IMD confirmed that the depression was positioned over the Southeast and adjoining Southwest Bay of Bengal near latitude 9.3°N and longitude 86.9°E at 8:30 AM IST.
Editorial Insight
Key Highlights
Important points readers should notice.
Issue/Event: Depression over the Bay of Bengal likely to intensify into a Severe Cyclonic Storm.
Location: Southeast and Southwest Bay of Bengal, with potential impact towards Andhra Pradesh and adjoining South Odisha coasts.
Authority/Organisation: India Meteorological Department (IMD), Ministry of Earth Sciences.
Action Taken: Pre-Cyclone Watch issued, alongside rainfall, wind and marine warnings.
Impact: Potential heavy rainfall, strong winds, rough seas, flooding and disruption across affected coastal and adjoining regions.
The system was located approximately 630 kilometres east of Trincomalee in Sri Lanka, 690 kilometres west-southwest of Sri Vijaya Puram in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, 840 kilometres east-southeast of Chennai, 1,010 kilometres south-southeast of Visakhapatnam and 1,130 kilometres south-southeast of Gopalpur in Odisha.
According to the meteorological department, the depression is very likely to move north-northwestwards and strengthen into a Cyclonic Storm over the central parts of the South and adjoining Westcentral Bay of Bengal on November 16.
The system is subsequently expected to intensify into a Severe Cyclonic Storm over the Westcentral Bay of Bengal on November 17. The IMD further forecasts that it could strengthen and move northwestwards towards the Andhra Pradesh coast during the following two days.
Editorial Analysis
Why This Matters
The developing weather system could create significant challenges for coastal communities, fishermen, maritime operations and local administrations across eastern and southern India. The possibility of extremely heavy rainfall over North Coastal Andhra Pradesh and heavy to very heavy rainfall over Odisha makes early preparedness particularly important. Fishing communities may face restrictions as sea conditions deteriorate, while transportation, agriculture and local infrastructure could experience disruption in areas receiving intense rainfall. The forecast also highlights the importance of following official weather advisories rather than relying on unverified reports about the storm's expected landfall.
The latest forecast indicates that the system could reach wind speeds of 95–105 kmph, with gusts up to 115 kmph, by November 17 evening. By November 19, it could intensify further into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm, with maximum sustained winds of 120–130 kmph and gusts reaching 145 kmph.
However, the IMD has cautioned that forecast models show considerable differences regarding the system's subsequent movement, further intensification and eventual landfall location. Therefore, a specific landfall point or time has not been conclusively established.
Heavy Rainfall Forecast Across Eastern and Southern India
The developing system is expected to influence weather conditions across several coastal and adjoining states.
For coastal Andhra Pradesh, the IMD has forecast heavy rainfall at isolated places on November 18, followed by heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places and isolated extremely heavy rainfall of 21 cm or more over North Coastal Andhra Pradesh on November 19 and 20.
In Odisha, heavy rainfall is expected at isolated places on November 18. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is forecast at isolated places between November 19 and 21.
Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal are also likely to experience changing weather conditions. The IMD has forecast heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places on November 18 and 19, with additional heavy rainfall possible on November 17 and 20.
Rainfall warnings have also been issued for parts of Rayalaseema, Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Gangetic West Bengal during the affected period.
The weather department has warned that intense rainfall could result in localised flooding, waterlogging in low-lying areas, reduced visibility, traffic disruption and possible damage to standing crops and rural roads.
Fishermen Advised to Return to Coast
The IMD has issued marine warnings as sea conditions are expected to deteriorate with the system's intensification.
Fishermen currently operating in affected sea areas have been advised to return to the coast by November 15. They have also been advised not to venture into the Southeast Bay of Bengal until November 17, the Southwest Bay of Bengal between November 15 and 19, and the Central Bay of Bengal between November 16 and 20.
Rough to very rough sea conditions are expected across several parts of the Bay of Bengal, with conditions likely to become high to very high in the Central Bay from November 17 onwards.
The IMD has also advised fisheries departments, fishing harbour authorities and maritime operators to monitor subsequent weather bulletins and review operational preparedness.
