India’s soybean harvest is expected to be slightly smaller in the 2026 Kharif season, with dry weather and insufficient soil moisture damaging crops in several important growing regions. The Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA) has projected national production at 107.93 lakh tonnes, a decline of 2.11% from the previous season’s estimated 110.26 lakh tonnes.
The association presented its first crop estimate during the concluding session of its international soybean conference in Indore on October 17. The forecast suggests that stronger harvests in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan will offset a substantial part of the losses reported in Maharashtra and other affected states.
Editorial Insight
Key Highlights
Important points readers should notice.
Issue/Event: SOPA projects a 2.11% decline in India’s soybean production during the 2026 Kharif season.
Location: India, with significant production differences across Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Karnataka and Telangana.
Authority/Organisation: Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA).
Action Taken: SOPA released its first crop estimate, assessing production, cultivated area, harvested area and expected yields.
Impact: The forecast points to a smaller national crop, severe estimated losses in Maharashtra and stronger output in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. Final effects on farmer incomes and market prices remain uncertain.
The national decline may appear modest, but the state-level differences are significant. Maharashtra’s soybean output is estimated to fall by 33.2%, while Madhya Pradesh, India’s largest soybean-producing state, is expected to increase production by 32.2%. Rajasthan is projected to record an even larger percentage rise, although its overall output remains much smaller than Madhya Pradesh’s.
The forecast highlights how the performance of a major agricultural commodity can vary sharply between states in the same season. Expanded planting across India has helped support production, but more land under cultivation has not fully compensated for the effect of dry conditions on crop development and harvestable acreage.
Why India’s soybean output is expected to decline
Editorial Analysis
Why This Matters
Farm income: Crop damage can reduce the quantity farmers have available to sell and make it harder to recover cultivation costs. Regional differences: Higher projected output in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan is expected to offset part of the decline in Maharashtra. Edible-oil supply: Soybean is a domestic source of oil and contributes to the wider edible-oil market. Poultry and livestock feed: Soybean meal is an important protein ingredient for feed manufacturers. Commodity markets: Traders and processors will monitor crop arrivals, stocks and prices before assessing the supply outlook. Weather vulnerability: The estimate highlights how prolonged dry spells can reduce harvestable area even when national sowing increases.
SOPA has attributed crop losses in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Telangana to prolonged dry spells and moisture deficiency during critical stages of crop growth.
According to the association, soybean crops sown across a combined 7.02 lakh hectares in these three states were completely destroyed and could not be harvested. It separately estimated that deficient soil moisture and drought conditions affected 7.76 lakh hectares nationally, reducing the area actually harvested.
Soybean is sensitive to the availability of moisture during important stages of growth. When rainfall is inadequate or dry conditions continue for too long, plants may not develop properly, pod formation can suffer and yields may fall. The effects depend on the timing and duration of the dry spell, soil conditions, crop variety and local farming practices.
The reported losses also show why total acreage alone is not enough to judge the condition of a harvest. A crop can be planted over a larger area but still produce less if a portion of the fields is damaged or yields decline.
SOPA’s estimate is based on its crop assessment. The final production figure may change as harvesting progresses and additional information becomes available.
Madhya Pradesh expected to lead the soybean harvest
Madhya Pradesh is expected to remain India’s largest soybean producer, with output projected at 57.16 lakh tonnes in the 2026 Kharif season.
That would represent a 32.2% increase from the 43.24 lakh tonnes estimated for the state in the previous season. SOPA also reported an increase in the area under soybean cultivation in Madhya Pradesh, from 48.64 lakh hectares to 52.09 lakh hectares.
Average yield in the state is projected to rise to 1,108 kilograms per hectare, compared with 889 kilograms per hectare a year earlier.
The combination of a larger cultivated area and improved expected yield is central to the projected increase. Higher production in Madhya Pradesh is likely to help cushion the national impact of crop losses elsewhere.
However, the state’s performance should not be interpreted as proof that all soybean-growing districts have experienced favourable conditions. Crop outcomes can differ locally, and the association’s estimate represents an overall state-level projection.
Maharashtra faces a sharper production setback
Maharashtra’s soybean production is projected to fall 33.2% to 34.88 lakh tonnes, according to SOPA.
The state is one of India’s major soybean-growing regions, making the estimated decline important for farmers, agricultural traders and processors. The association linked the losses in Maharashtra and other affected states to prolonged dry spells and a shortage of soil moisture during crop growth.
For farmers whose crops have been damaged, lower production can mean reduced sales revenue and difficulty recovering the cost of seed, fertiliser, labour, machinery and other cultivation expenses. The actual financial impact will depend on each farmer’s yield, market price, insurance coverage and production costs.
A fall in state output does not automatically mean that every farmer will receive a lower price. Market rates depend on multiple factors, including the quality and availability of harvested produce, demand from processors, imported edible oils and broader commodity-market conditions.
The extent of the production setback will become clearer as harvesting data and market arrivals provide a more complete picture.
Rajasthan’s output is projected to increase
Rajasthan is expected to produce 9.47 lakh tonnes of soybean, a 48.2% increase from the previous season, according to the association’s estimate.
The projected rise is substantial in percentage terms, but Rajasthan’s total output remains below the expected production levels of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra.
Higher production in Rajasthan is nevertheless important because it adds to the volume available to the domestic market and helps counter losses in other states. Together with Madhya Pradesh, the state is expected to offset a large share of the decline in Maharashtra.
The figures also demonstrate why national agricultural estimates can conceal major differences in regional conditions. A rise in output in one state can soften the national impact without necessarily compensating every farmer or district affected by poor weather.
More soybean was planted, but the harvestable area fell
SOPA estimates that soybean was sown across 117.73 lakh hectares during the current Kharif season, compared with 112.14 lakh hectares in 2025. This represents an increase of nearly 5 lakh hectares, or about 5%.
Despite the expansion in sowing, the association estimates that the harvested area fell to 109.98 lakh hectares after crop damage affected fields across 7.76 lakh hectares.
Average yield across the harvested area is projected at 981 kilograms per hectare, marginally below the 983 kilograms per hectare estimated for the previous Kharif season.
The figures illustrate two different influences on production. More land was planted, but a smaller proportion of the sown area was available for harvesting, while the estimated average yield also edged down.
National production is consequently projected to fall from 110.26 lakh tonnes to 107.93 lakh tonnes.
These numbers remain estimates rather than a final harvest count. Subsequent crop assessments could revise the production outlook as field conditions and harvesting results are reported.
Why soybean matters to India’s food and livestock sectors
Soybean is an important oilseed crop used to produce soybean oil and soybean meal. The oil contributes to the edible-oil supply, while soybean meal provides protein for livestock and poultry feed.
A change in domestic production can therefore matter to several parts of the agricultural supply chain, including farmers, traders, oilseed processors, feed manufacturers and food businesses.
If domestic supplies tighten while demand remains strong, processors may need to rely more heavily on available stocks or other sources of supply. The final effect on prices will depend on production in other oilseed crops, imports, inventories, international prices and the pace of domestic demand.
A 2.11% projected decline does not by itself establish that cooking-oil prices or poultry-feed costs will rise. Such outcomes would require evidence of tighter market availability and how suppliers respond.
The estimate is best understood as a supply indicator that market participants will consider alongside other agricultural and commodity data.
What the forecast means for farmers
The uneven outlook may create different challenges across major soybean-producing states.
Farmers in areas where production has been damaged could face lower marketable output and pressure on household income. Those with insurance or other forms of support may have some protection, depending on the applicable scheme, eligibility requirements and assessment of losses.
In states where output is expected to rise, farmers may have more produce available for sale. Their earnings will still depend on prevailing prices, crop quality, transport costs and the cost of cultivation.
The national estimate does not establish whether individual farmers will qualify for compensation or insurance payments. Those decisions depend on the relevant policies and verified assessments of damage.
For future seasons, the reported losses underline the importance of locally appropriate crop planning, access to weather information, soil-moisture management and agricultural advice. No single measure can eliminate the risks associated with extended dry weather, and suitable practices differ by soil type, rainfall pattern and local conditions.
Will soybean prices rise because production is lower?
A smaller harvest can support prices when demand remains strong, but the relationship is not automatic.
Soybean prices are affected by domestic arrivals, existing stocks, demand from oil processors and feed manufacturers, prices of competing oilseeds, edible-oil imports and international market movements.
If Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan deliver the stronger harvests expected by SOPA, their output may help maintain supplies despite losses in Maharashtra. Import availability and stocks can also influence how much of the projected national decline translates into market pressure.
Farmers and traders will therefore need to follow actual mandi arrivals, prevailing prices and updated crop assessments rather than treating the initial estimate as a direct prediction of price movements.
The forecast also does not establish that consumers will immediately face higher cooking-oil prices. Retail prices depend on the wider edible-oil market, processing costs, imports and distribution margins.
What happens next?
The next important indicators will be actual harvest progress, arrivals in major soybean markets and any revision to the initial production estimate.
Market participants will also monitor whether the projected gains in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan materialise and how severely dry conditions have affected the final harvest in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Telangana.
For farmers, the financial consequences will become clearer through realised yields, local market prices and any applicable crop-loss assessments. For processors, the balance between domestic supply, stocks and demand will be important in determining procurement plans.
Until updated estimates are available, SOPA’s figures provide an early assessment of the season rather than a final measure of India’s soybean production.
